Prediction From Minimal Experience: How People Predict the Duration of an Ongoing Epidemic.

People are known for good predictions in domains they have rich experience with, such as everyday statistics and intuitive physics. But how well can they predict for problems they lack experience with, such as the duration of an ongoing epidemic caused by a new virus? Amid the first wave of COVID-19 in China, we conducted an online diary study, asking each of over 400 participants to predict the remaining duration of the epidemic, once per day for 14 days. Participants' predictions reflected a reasonable use of publicly available information but were meanwhile biased, subject to the influence of negative affect and future time perspectives. Computational modeling revealed that participants neither relied on prior distributions of epidemic durations as in inferring everyday statistics, nor on mechanistic simulations of epidemic dynamics as in computing intuitive physics. Instead, with minimal experience, participants' predictions were best explained by similarity-based generalization of the temporal pattern of epidemic statistics. In two control experiments, we further confirmed that such cognitive algorithm is not specific to the epidemic scenario and that minimal and rich experience do lead to different prediction behaviors for the same observations. We conclude that people generalize patterns in recent history to predict the future under minimal experience.

COVID-19 vaccination boosts the potency and breadth of the immune response against SARS-CoV-2 among recovered patients in Wuhan.

The immunity of patients who recover from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be long lasting but persist at a lower level. Thus, recovered patients still need to be vaccinated to prevent reinfection by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or its mutated variants. Here, we report that the inactivated COVID-19 vaccine can stimulate immunity in recovered patients to maintain high levels of anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) and anti-nucleocapsid protein (NP) antibody titers within 9 months, and high neutralizing activity against the prototype, Delta, and Omicron strains was observed. Nevertheless, the antibody response decreased over time, and the Omicron variant exhibited more pronounced resistance to neutralization than the prototype and Delta strains. Moreover, the intensity of the SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cell response was also increased in recovered patients who received COVID-19 vaccines. Overall, the repeated antigen exposure provided by inactivated COVID-19 vaccination greatly boosted both the potency and breadth of the humoral and cellular immune responses against SARS-CoV-2, effectively protecting recovered individuals from reinfection by circulating SARS-CoV-2 and its variants.

Functionalized biological metal-organic framework with nanosized coronal structure and hierarchical wrapping pattern for enhanced targeting therapy.

Inefficient tumor-targeted delivery and uncontrolled drug release are the major obstacles in cancer chemotherapy. Herein, inspired by the targeting advantage of coronavirus from its size and coronal structure, a coronal biological metal-organic framework nanovehicle (named as corona-BioMOF) is constructed for improving its precise cancer targeting ability. The designed corona-BioMOF is constructed as the carriers-encapsulated carrier model by inner coated with abundant protein-nanocaged doxorubicin particles and external decorated with high-affinity apoferritin proteins to form the spiky surface for constructing the specific coronal structure. The corona-BioMOF shows a higher affinity and an enhanced targeting ability towards receptor-positive cancer cells compared to that of MOF-drug composites without spiky surface. It also exhibits the hierarchical wrapping pattern-endowed controlled lysosome-specific drug release and remarkable tumor lethality in vivo. Moreover, water-induced surface defect-based protein handle mechanism is first proposed to shape the coronal-BioMOF. This work will provide a better inspiration for nanovehicle construction and be broadly useful for clinical precision nanomedicine.

TBR-NER: Research on COVID-19 Text Information Extraction Based on Joint Learning of Topic Recognition and Named Entity Recognition

There is a centralization of the core content in the text information of the new crown epidemic notification. This paper proposes a joint learning text information extraction method: TBR-NER (topic-based recognition named entity recognition) based on topic recognition and named entity recognition to predict the labeled risk areas and epidemic trajectory information in text information. Transfer learning and data augmentation are used to solve the problem of data scarcity caused by the initial local outbreak of the epidemic, and mutual understanding is achieved by topic self-labeling without introducing additional labeled data. Taking the epidemic cases in Hebei and Jilin provinces as examples, the reliability and effectiveness of the method are verified by five types of topic recognition and 15 types of entity information extraction. The experimental results show that, compared with the four existing NER methods, this method can achieve optimality faster through the mutual learning of each task at the early stage of training. The optimal accuracy in the independent test set can be improved by more than 20%, and the minimum loss value is significantly reduced. This also proves that the joint learning algorithm (TBR-NER) mentioned in this paper performs better in such tasks. The TBR-NER model has specific sociality and applicability and can help in epidemic prediction, prevention, and control.

Research progress of histone deacetylases inhibitors in antiviral drugs discovery

Histone deacetylases (HDACs) are a class of key enzymes that regulate epigenetics. There are 5 small-molecule HDACs inhibitors having been approved for anti-cancer therapy on the market. In recent years, there have been more and more studies on the antiviral aspects of HDACs inhibitors. This article classifies viruses into human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1), new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and other viruses, systematically summarizes the recent advances of antiviral effects of the HDACs inhibitors from the perspective of medicinal chemistry. This review aims to provide the researchers the convenience of accessing the latest advances of the antiviral effects of HDACs inhibitors, and to analyze the challenges and prospects of this field in future drug discovery.

Profiling CD8+ T cell epitopes of COVID-19 convalescents reveals reduced cellular immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Cellular immunity is important in determining the disease severity of COVID-19 patients. However, current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 epitopes mediating cellular immunity is limited. Here we apply T-Scan, a recently developed method, to identify CD8+ T cell epitopes from COVID-19 patients of four major HLA-A alleles. Several identified epitopes are conserved across human coronaviruses, which might mediate pre-existing cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2. In addition, we identify and validate four epitopes that were mutated in the newly circulating variants, including the Delta variant. The mutations significantly reduce T cell responses to the epitope peptides in convalescent and vaccinated samples. We further determine the crystal structure of HLA-A∗02:01/HLA-A∗24:02 in complex with the epitope KIA_S/NYN_S, respectively, which reveals the importance of K417 and L452 of the spike protein for binding to HLA. Our data suggest that evading cellular immunity might contribute to the increased transmissibility and disease severity associated with the new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Increased occurrence of PTSD symptoms in adolescents with major depressive disorder soon after the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in China: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to threaten the physical and mental health of people across the world. This study aimed to understand the psychological impact of this disease on adolescents with major depressive disorder (MDD) at 1 month after the start of the outbreak in China. METHODS: Using the Children's Impact of Event Scale (CRIES-13) questionnaire, we investigated the occurrence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in two groups of adolescents: MDD patients who were in continuous antidepressant therapy and healthy controls. Total scores and factor subscores were compared between the two groups and subgroups stratified by sex and school grade. Logistic regression was used to identify variables associated with high total CRIES-13 scores. RESULTS: Compared to controls (n = 107), the MDD group (n = 90) had higher total CRIES-13 scores and a higher proportion with a total score ≥ 30. They also had a lower intrusion subscore and a higher arousal subscore. In the MDD group, males and females did not differ significantly in total CRIES-13 scores or factor subscores, but junior high school students had higher avoidance subscores than senior high school students. Logistic regression showed high total CRIES-13 scores to be associated with MDD and the experience of "flashbacks" or avoidance of traumatic memories associated with COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: It is crucial to understand the psychological impact of COVID-19 on adolescents with MDD in China, especially females and junior high school students. Long-term monitoring of adolescents with a history of mental illness is required to further understand these impacts. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ChiCTR, ChiCTR2000033402 , Registered 31 May 2020.

Increased symptoms of post-traumatic stress in school students soon after the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) caused psychological stress in Chinese adults population. But we are unaware of whether the pandemic causes psychological stress on children. METHODS: We used the Children's Impact of Event Scale questionnaire (CRIES-13) to investigate the degree of Post-traumatic Stress (PTSD) symptoms caused by the pandemic in students selected from schools in Sichuan, Jiangsu, Henan, Yunnan, and Chongqing provinces of China. RESULTS: A total of 7769 students(3692 male and 4077 female), aged 8-18 years, were enrolled in the study, comprising 1214 in primary schools, 2799 in junior high schools and 3756 in senior high schools. A total of 1639 students (21.1%) had severe psychological stress reactions. A large proportion of senior high school students (23.3%) experienced severe psychological stress, and they had the highest median total CRIES-13 score. Female students were more likely to experience severe psychological stress and had higher median CRIES-13 total scores than males. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 has placed psychological stresses on primary and secondary school students in China. These stresses are more likely to reach severe levels among female students and senior high school students.

Retropharyngeal Abscess in an Adult With Pneumonia During COVID-19 Outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Retropharyngeal abscesses are rarely reported in adults and occur mostly in patients with immunocompromised or as a foreign body complication. Admittedly, the treatment of retropharyngeal abscesses frequently involves surgical drainage to achieve the best results. However, when retropharyngeal abscesses occurred in a highly suspected patient with COVID-19, the managements and treatments should be caution to prevent the spread of the virus. CLINICAL PRESENTATION: On February 13, a 40-year-old male with retropharyngeal abscesses turned to our department complaining dyspnea and dysphagia. In addition, his chest CT scan shows a suspected COVID-19 infection, thus making out Multiple Disciplinary Team determine to perform percutaneous drainage and catheterization through left anterior cervical approach under the guidance of B-ultrasound. Finally, the patient recovered and was discharged from the hospital on February 27 after 14 days of isolation. There was no recurrence after half a year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: By presenting this case, we aim at raising awareness of different surgical drainage methods and summarizing our experience in the management of retropharyngeal abscesses during the outbreak of COVID-19.

Pyrococcus furiosus Argonaute coupled with modified ligase chain reaction for detection of SARS-CoV-2 and HPV.

Infectious diseases caused by viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 and HPV have greatly endangered human health. The nucleic acid detection is essential for the early diagnosis of diseases. Here, we propose a method called PLCR (PfAgo coupled with modified Ligase Chain Reaction for nucleic acid detection) which utilizes PfAgo to only use DNA guides longer than 14-mer to specifically cleave DNA and LCR to precisely distinguish single-base mismatch. PLCR can detect DNA or RNA without PCR at attomolar sensitivities, distinguish single base mutation between the genome of wild type SARS-CoV-2 and its mutant spike D614G, effectively distinguish the novel coronavirus from other coronaviruses and finally achieve multiplexed detection in 70 min. Additionally, LCR products can be directly used as DNA guides without additional input guides to simplify primer design. With desirable sensitivity, specificity and simplicity, the method can be extended for detecting other pathogenic microorganisms.

The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions.

In January 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak was detected in Sichuan Province of China. Six weeks later, the outbreak was successfully contained. The aim of this work is to characterize the epidemiology of the Sichuan outbreak and estimate the impact of interventions in limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We analyzed patient records for all laboratory-confirmed cases reported in the province for the period of January 21 to March 16, 2020. To estimate the basic and daily reproduction numbers, we used a Bayesian framework. In addition, we estimated the number of cases averted by the implemented control strategies. The outbreak resulted in 539 confirmed cases, lasted less than two months, and no further local transmission was detected after February 27. The median age of local cases was 8 years older than that of imported cases. We estimated R0 at 2.4 (95% CI: 1.6-3.7). The epidemic was self-sustained for about 3 weeks before going below the epidemic threshold 3 days after the declaration of a public health emergency by Sichuan authorities. Our findings indicate that, were the control measures be adopted four weeks later, the epidemic could have lasted 49 days longer (95% CI: 31-68 days), causing 9,216 more cases (95% CI: 1,317-25,545).

Risk factors for myocardial injury in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in China.

AIMS: In patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the involvement of the cardiovascular system significantly relates to poor prognosis. However, the risk factors for acute myocardial injury have not been sufficiently studied. Thus, we aimed to determine the characteristics of myocardial injury and define the association between routine blood markers and cardiac troponin I, in order to perform a predictive model. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective cohort study included patients with confirmed COVID-19 from Wuhan Tongji Hospital (Wuhan, China). Data were compared between those with and without myocardial injury. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression models were used to describe the association between myocardial injury and poor prognosis. Simple correlation analyses were used to find factors associated with high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I levels. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to explore the risk factors associated with myocardial injury. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the predictive value of the model. Of 353 patients included in the study, 79 presented myocardial injury. Patients with myocardial injury had higher levels of inflammation markers, poorer liver and kidney function, and more complications compared with patients without myocardial injury. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I levels were significantly associated with neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, creatinine, d-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase, and inflammatory cytokines and negatively associated with oxygen saturation. It was significantly associated with poor prognosis after adjusting for age, sex, and complications. Multivariate regression showed that myocardial injury was associated with a high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio 2.30, 95% CI 1.11-4.75, per standard deviation increase, P = 0.02), creatinine (3.58, 1.35-8.06, P = 0.01), and lactate dehydrogenase (3.39, 1.42-8.06, P = 0.01) levels. Using a predictive model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.92 (0.88-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with COVID-19, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, creatinine, and lactate dehydrogenase are blood markers that could help identify patients with a high risk of myocardial injury at an early stage.